Trading Trading Token Unlocks and Supply Dilution
Track venture capitalist vesting schedules and massive token unlock events to anticipate structural supply shocks and short-selling opportunities.
The Mechanics of Token Vesting
To prevent early investors and team members from dumping their tokens immediately after launch, crypto projects enforce strict vesting schedules and lock-up periods. When these lock-ups expire (a "Token Unlock"), an influx of new supply hits the open market.
Cliff vs. Linear Unlocks
Cliff Unlocks: A massive chunk of tokens is unlocked on a singular date. These events act as known fundamental catalysts and are often heavily front-run by quantitative short sellers.
Linear Unlocks: Tokens are unlocked gradually per block or per day over several years, creating a persistent overhead supply drag on price action.
AlphaSignal's Dilution Tracker
By mapping out precise unlock dates and calculating the percentage of newly circulating supply relative to 24hr liquidity depth, AlphaSignal highlights vulnerable assets primed for structural downside repricing due to VC token dumping.
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